Bay Area COVID-19 Model
The Bay Area COVID-19 model above is contained in a Google Spread sheet with lots of tabs. Max Henderson updates it every four days. I appreciate the fact that this is a local model that seems to have a lot of thought put into the details and assumptions being made. Look through the sections below to understand my own take aways from the model.
BTW Max has started a new project https://covidactnow.org which you should check out.
First, Read through the information in these green tabs first. There is a lot of really good information there.
Second, look at the red tab and notice the difference between the different interventions. The red curves are doing nothing, the yellow curves are “flattening” the curve responses that we’re currently doing, and the green curves are Full Wuhan containment by locking down our city. Do you see the green curves? No that’s because they’ve contained and squashed the virus. One thing that either he or I need to do is to change the model such that the various interventions start from the present day numbers.
Third, look at the infection rate tab. In other posts on this website I call out the phrase “you can run but you can’t hide” from the virus. This tab is one of the things that led me to believe that. The blue curve is the chance of infection within any single four day period (the model increments every four days). The green curve is the cumulative chance of infection over the course of the outbreak. So by the time this is all over you will have a roughly 90% chance of infection. One caveat is that this model assumes a homogenous population (ie everyone is behaving exactly the same) Some people might be isolating themselves better than others and while they are isolating will have a reduced chance of infection. However at some point no matter how well and how long you are isolating yourself you will have to go back out into the world and the virus will be waiting for you.
Lastly, look at some of the highlighted sections of the raw model numbers. He has put the phrase “try not to get infected after this date” in column A because two weeks later in column K the Bay Area’s hospitals are over capacity. Now this model needs updating. Specifically in the current trends he has us coming off shelter in place April 7th and we now know its going to go on longer than that.
Max has started a new project https://covidactnow.org which you should check out.